My prognosis on the US Economy and the Presidential Elections
I believe that US economic statistics are so manipulated today that it is difficult to know what the situation is.
The central bank is trying to correct a decade of easy money with a restrictive policy that is reducing the prices of existing assets, endangering banks and commercial real estate, and adding to the debt burdens of consumers. Additionally the US dollar as a result of sanctions and theft of Russia’s central bank reserves is experiencing a diminished role as world reserve currency. This diminished role jeopardizes the foreign financing of US trade and budget deficits.
As long as other countries settled their trade differences in US dollars and the Saudis billed in dollars for their oil, foreign central banks had incentives to keep their reserves in the form of US Treasuries, thus financing US trade and budget deficits. The move away from the dollar means that the foreign demand for dollars is falling, but the supply continues to increase as a result of US trade and budget deficits. The implication is a decrease in the exchange value of the dollar.
As the US has offshored its manufacturing and is import-dependent, a fall in the dollar’s value means a sharp rise in US inflation and a sharp fall in US living standards. In other words, the prospects for the American economy are far worse than a mere recession.
As to the 2024 Presidential elections, I believe that the danger for Trump is the same danger that the original Bolsheviks faced from Stalin. Stalin controlled the prosecutorial process. The Democrats in New York control the State legal system and can bring as many false charges as they please. They will have no problem selecting a jury that will convict. It is unclear whether the Democrats intend to convict or just to prevent Trump from running.
At the end of the day, it is unclear whether a US president can be imprisoned. Federal law requires all former presidents to have the protection of two Secret Service agents for their lifetime. As it is impossible to put Secret Service agents in prison, how can a former president be imprisoned?
What we are experiencing in the US is clearly the rise of a Gestapo state in which the current president, Biden, is grossly interfering in a presidential election by prosecuting his rival who is without any doubt far ahead according to all polls despite the propaganda against him that is repeated endlessly by the media.
I believe that unless Trump is somehow prevented from running–I do not rule out Trump’s assassination by the CIA/FBI–and unless the Democrats are again able to steal the election, Trump will win by the largest majority in American history.
Polls show that Biden is so far behind, that it is impossible for the Democrats to steal the election. As Trump is unacceptable to the military/security complex and the Ruling Establishment, he runs though a high risk of assassination
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